India is experiencing a significant drop in its TFR, or total fertility rate. This reduction made a remarkable demographic transformation where the average number of children a woman is expected to have has dropped sharply from 3.5 in the early 1990s to 1.9 today.

This decline not only shows a statistic, but it also reflects significant socio-economic changes shaping modern India.

Reason behind this downfall…

One of the biggest contributors to declining fertility is increased awareness and access to contraception. Couples nowadays are more informed about family planning methods and have better access to healthcare services. Government initiatives, NGOs, and digital platforms have played a vital role in spreading knowledge about reproductive health.

Another important reason is that Women’s education and employment opportunities have been a major game changer. As more women pursue higher studies, build careers, and delay marriage, family sizes naturally become smaller. A rise in nuclear families, urban lifestyle pressures, and the desire for financial stability push many couples to prioritise personal and professional growth before having children.

Urbanisation has brought with it higher living costs, especially in metros where housing, education, and healthcare expenses have skyrocketed. Many young couples feel that raising even one child responsibly requires substantial financial planning. This has created a shift in the mindset that is from having more children to ensuring a better life for fewer. This mindset of today’s couple reflects a conscious effort to maintain quality over quantity.

Another major factor is the increasing age of marriage. The average age at which people marry has steadily risen, shortening the reproductive window and contributing to fewer births. Additionally, work-related stress, irregular lifestyles, and health issues such as PCOS, obesity, and declining sperm quality have impacted natural fertility levels.

Let’s have a look at the regional variations…

While the national TFR is below replacement level, you will find significant disparities exist across the country: 

• Low Fertility States: Southern and urban regions like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Delhi have TFRs as low as 1.3 to 1.5.
• Higher Fertility States: States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand still report higher fertility rates, often linked to lower access to education and family planning services.

Know the impact of the declining Total Fertility Rate…

Positive impact

• Economically Active Population: Since fertility rates have declined, the proportion of the population in the “economically active” age group of 15-59 years has increased.
• Stimulate Economic Growth: Falling fertility rates can boost economic growth by encouraging higher workforce participation, greater savings, and increased investment in physical and human capital.
• Reduce Social Inequities: When there is a slowing of population growth, there is an opportunity to ensure that public services like education and health are available to everyone, which can help reduce social and regional disparities.
• Environmental Sustainability: Reduce pressures on the environment associated with climate change, depletion of natural resources, and environmental degradation.

Negative Impact

• Effect on economic and social progress: Fewer births and smaller populations naturally mean fewer workers, savers, and spenders, potentially sending an economy into contraction.
• Ageing population: States with a longer history of low fertility rates, such as Kerala (TFR 1.5), now have the highest proportion of elderly persons at 15.1%. This affects the overall workforce and healthcare system.
• Uneven Regional Growth: Fertility variations may deepen regional inequalities and affect representation.
  • All States reporting higher than replacement level TFR are in northern India — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
• Irreversibility of Fertility Decline: Once fertility declines, it rarely rebounds.
  • Countries like South Korea, which tried to stem the demographic crisis, have failed, and the fertility rate plunged from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.72 in 2023.

An alternative way to maintain the balance…

• Adopt a differential policy approach: While low-TFR states may need pro-natal incentives, high-TFR states still require sustained investment in female education and accessible health services.

• Rights-Based Family Planning: Maintain the current rights-based approach to family planning by expanding the basket of contraceptive choices.
• Plan for an Ageing Population: This includes considering the sustainability of social security and pension systems.
• Affordable Childcare: Implement universal, high-quality, and subsidised crèche facilities across urban and semi-urban centres to ensure women can continue their careers.
• Gender-Neutral Parental Leave: Enforcing and encouraging the use of paid parental leave for both parents and normalising the shared caregiving, and reducing the career penalty for mothers.

The challenge is to find the right balance between personal choices and national demographic needs. And the top fertility experts of the best women’s clinic in Kolkata are here to guide you in your fertility journey.